Bushfire risk profile, Alpine and North East Bushfire Risk Landscape, 1980–2021
Bushfire risk profile, Alpine and North East BRL, 1980–2021
Bushfire risk in Alpine and North East
The Alpine and North East BRL risk profile for the period 1980–2018, and projected changes in bushfire risk until 2021. It shows that:
- In 2017-18, bushfire risk in the landscape was 59%.
- Bushfire risk fell sharply after major bushfires in the early 1980s, including the 1985 Mt Buffalo fire and then increased as fuel slowly re-accumulated.
- Over the last few decades, bushfire risk has fallen sharply in response to several large bushfires including the 2003 Alpine fire, the 2006–07 Great Divide fires and the 2013 Harrietville fire.
- After 2006–07, planned burning kept bushfire risk below 40% for five years, but in recent years bushfire risk has been increasing again due to fuel re-accumulating in large areas burnt by bushfires.
- Despite restricted conditions for planned burn fuel-reduction activities in 2017–18, we maintained bushfire risk below the 60% target.
- Fuel management activities on the FOP will reduce risk to a projected 45%, but without any fuel management, we project bushfire risk will increase to 74% by 2021.
Valuing our environment
Tolerable fire interval across Alpine and North East
The figure below shows the tolerable fire interval (TFI) status of vegetation on public land in the Alpine and North East BRL for the period 2007–18.
The figure shows that in 2017–18 about 61% of the vegetation was below minimum TFI. It also shows that over the past ten years the proportion of vegetation below minimum TFI has remained about the same. This is a result of regeneration over the past 15 years after several major bushfires including the 2003 Alpine fire, the 2006–07 Great Divide fires and the 2013 Harrietville fire.
In 2017-18, a 13% increase in vegetation within TFI was observed, as substantial areas of fire-affected vegetation in the ANE reached reproductive maturity. In 2017–18, less than 1% of the vegetation in this landscape was burnt by bushfire or planned burning while below TFI. This shows that our fire management strategies are carefully considering and planning our burns to reduce our impacts on vegetation below minimum TFI.
TFI status of public land vegetation, Alpine and North East BRL, 2007–18
Growth stage structure across Alpine and North East
The figure below shows the growth stage structure (GSS) status of vegetation on public land in Alpine and North East for the period 2007–18.
The figure shows about 43% of the landscape was in the juvenile and adolescent growth stages in 2017–18. In recent years, the proportion of vegetation in the mature and old growth stages has increased to about 45% of the landscape, as large areas of fire-affected vegetation have reached maturity.
GSS status of public land vegetation, Alpine and North East BRL, 2007–18
A large proportion of this landscape has no recorded fire history. Nothing can be inferred about the TFI and GSS of public land with no recorded fire history.