Map of the state of Victoria highlighting the South Western Bushfire Risk Landscape

Bushfire risk profile, South Western Bushfire Risk Landscape, 1980–2021

Bushfire risk in South Western

South Western BRL risk profile for the period 1980–2018, and projected changes in bushfire risk until 2021. It shows that:

  • In 2017–18, bushfire risk in the landscape was 55%.
  • Bushfire risk was mostly stable after 1980 in the range 60–70%, but it fell sharply to about 57% after the 2006 Mt Lubra bushfire in the Grampians, and it has continued to gradually fall because of planned burning and more-recent bushfires in the Grampians. Bushfire risk has begun to increase in recent years as fuel re-accumulates in these fire-affected areas.
  • Fuel management activities on the FOP will reduce risk to a projected 49%, but without any fuel management, we project bushfire risk will increase to 62% by 2021.

Valuing our environment

Tolerable fire interval across South Western

The figure below shows the tolerable fire interval (TFI) status of vegetation on public land in the South Western BRL for the period 2007–18.

The figure shows that in 2017–18, 40% of the vegetation was below minimum TFI. Between 2007 and 2015, the proportion of the vegetation below minimum TFI increased from 30% to about 40% as a result of major bushfires in the Grampians in 2006, 2013 and 2014 and in the west of the landscape in 2006 and 2012. In 2017–18, about 1720 ha of the vegetation was burnt by bushfires or planned burning while below minimum TFI. We use strategic fuel management planning to carefully undertake planned burning to reduce impacts on vegetation below minimum TFI.

TFI status of public land vegetation, South Western BRL, 2007–18

Growth stage structure across South Western

The figure below shows the growth stage structure (GSS) status of vegetation on public land in the South Western BRL for the period 2007–18.

The figure shows that in 2017–18, 27% of the landscape was in the juvenile and adolescent growth stages, and about 45% was in the older (mature and old) growth stages. Over the decade to 2015, major bushfires increased the proportion of vegetation in the juvenile and adolescent growth stages from about 27% to about 40%. In recent years, some of this vegetation has started to grow to the mature stage.

GSS status of public land vegetation, South Western BRL, 2007–18

A small proportion of this landscape has no recorded fire history. Nothing can be inferred about the TFI and GSS of public land with no recorded fire history.

Page last updated: 11/12/18