The outlook for spring was released on 27 August at the AFAC25 Conference in Perth.
Forest Fire Management Victoria Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman AFSM says land and fire agencies are well prepared.
'FFMVic works year-round with our agency partners to manage the risk of bushfires.'
'We want our communities to know that when a bushfire starts, we are ready to respond. Our crews have specialist skills and training fighting fires in our state forests and national parks, including rappelling, tree-felling and ‘dry firefighting’.
Record low rainfall
In the past 18 months, Victoria has experienced low rainfall across most parts of the state, except for East Gippsland. Record low rainfall was recorded in the state’s west, extending across west central and in south-west Gippsland, including the Mornington Peninsula. Lower rainfall has also been expanding into the north-central and central highlands.
This has resulted in an increase in fuel, such as dead plant material and vegetation, which has the potential to support significant bushfire potential. The more fuel available, the hotter and more intense a bushfire can become and the faster it can spread.
While winter rainfall across the south-west, central, eastern and north-east ranges could minimise the chance of fires in forests, a lack of rainfall in spring could result in above-normal fire potential in these areas leading into summer.
Green growth in paddocks during spring is also likely, but underlying dryness may result in early curing. The degree of curing influences how easily a fire can ignite and spread.
Eastern and northern Victoria is forecast to be at normal risk, with a wetter outlook forecast for northern Victoria.
Communities urged to prepare
Victoria’s emergency services remain well prepared for all emergencies – including bushfires, heatwaves, storms and flash flooding.
Preparedness is a shared responsibility, and it’s important for communities to prepare now and understand their local risks.
'Bushfire management is a shared responsibility. We encourage the community to prepare themselves as best they can. Stay up to date with warnings and keep informed as the season progresses,' Mr Hardman said.
Stay informed
Download the VicEmergency app or checking the VicEmergency website.
Prepare a fire plan and reduce vegetation around your home by mowing lawns and clearing gutters to help you prepare for a bushfire.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Spring is developed by AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services in Australia and New Zealand, supported by the Bureau of Meteorology, along with state and territory fire and land managers. The Outlook gives a national picture of the likelihood of fires over the spring months.
Page last updated: 28/08/25